Hi,
Please see attached my three tips for Friday:
Bertog – 6.45 Wolverhampton – 1 Mile Handicap – 40/1 BetVictor, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook – 1 Point Each Way.
Bertog looks overpriced at 40/1 in this run-of-the-mill class 5 handicap.
He won on the turf in 2020 off a mark of 65 and was switched to the all-weather last winter for his first stint on the synthetics. In his five runs, he finished close second and third off 62 and then didn’t feature on the turf in the summer of 2021.
He returned to action recently off a 305-day break and just ran midfield. This looked very much like a seasonal pipe opener.
Bertog returns here for his second run which interests me as he won his race second time out, where he stepped up considerably on his first run. He has replicated this improvement for a run before, so this looks positive.
So does the fact it was this race that he finished second in last year off 62 and he gets in here off 4lb on 58.
Joe Fanning is a strong jockey booking and I see no reason why he won’t run a solid race with a good chance.
Under the circumstances, he shouldn’t be 40/1 and I, therefore, recommend 1 point each way.
He is still value at 16/1.
Summereyes – 4.05 Lingfield – 1 Mile Handicap – 20/1 Coral & Boyles – 4 Places (20/1 Ladbrokes – 3 places) – BOG – 1 Point Each Way.
The 3-year-old filly Summereyes has only run 5 times and is still showing signs of greenness and a tendency to be run keen.
On her handicap debut, over a mile, she again ran green in rear and the penny seemed to drop in the final furlong where she stayed on strongly into 3rd.
She didn’t back it up over 1m 2F and maybe her keenness over the trip spoilt her chances.
Summereyes will appreciate a return to 1 mile, and I like that her trainer, Ed Dunlop reached for first-time hood and cheekpieces to help her settle and focus. Ed has a good record with first-time hoods, so we can expect a better run,
David Probert is always s good jockey, and he is on the hot list currently, so it all points to a big run.
At 20/1 with Coral and Boyles, who both offer 4 places, and BOG, you can get 22/1 with Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, and BetVictor, and 20/1 with Ladbrokes BOG.
I recommend 1 point each way at 20/1.
She is still value 12/1,
Natural Impulse – 2.55 Lingfield – 5F Handicap – 10/1 Coral Ladbrokes 888 – BOG – 1 Point Each Way.
Natural Impulse’s trainer, Simon Hodgson, has an excellent 5-year strike rate of 20% and this increases to 27% for his 3-year-olds on the all-weather.
With that kind of strike rate, and without the deep pursed owners it’s hardly surprising he regularly gets his horses well handicapped then rattles up the winners.
It looks like he is doing it again with the sprint-bred Natural Impulse, who ran green and keen on his first two starts over 6F and was stepped up to 1 mile for his final maiden run where he led and pulled the jockeys out trying to go faster.
He tired badly in the final furlong, but that served a purpose as he gets in here off just 55.
For his handicap debut, they look to be going for the victory as they drop him back to 5F furlongs for the first time and slap the blinkers on him to sharpen him up.
He is a nice backable price at 10/1 and I recommend 1 point each way,
He is still value at 8/1.
