Hi,
I hope you had a wonderful Christmas,!
Please see below my 5 picks for a bumper Boxing Day!
Hier Encore – 3.27 Fontwell – 2m 3F Handicap Hurdle – 20/1 Sky, BetVictor, Bet365 (33/1) – 1 Point Each Way.
The 9 year old Hier Encore is a real Fontwell specialist running here 20 times, winning twice and placing a further 6 times. Those wins were off mark of 97 and 88.
He hit his handicap limit at just over 100 and ran creditably and consistently around that mark for a couple of years.
Hier Encore won this race in 2018 off a mark of 88 and today pitches up here off just 79. His handicap mark is officially 75 but has the very capable Ben Ffrench-Davis on board who claims 5lb to help offset the overweight.
I always feel Boxing Day winners love to repeat the feat (subject to fitness/wellbeing). This race hasn’t been staged for the last couple of years and I feel connections have been eyeing this race and geared the first half of the season around winning this.
With just two below par runs this season, including the latest start over a totally unsuitable 3 miles, Hier Encore returns to his best trip of 2m 3F and track with connections reaching for tongue tie and first time cheekpieces.
They definitely mean business and at 20/1 with Sky, BetVictor (Bet365 standout 33/1) I’m recommending a 1 point each way play.
He is still value at 12/1.
Simply Supreme – 2.52 Fontwell – 3m 2F Handicap Chase – 18/1 Sky William Hill, BetVictor – 1 Point Each Way.
Simply Supreme looks a fascinating contender in this 3m 2F staying handicap chase.
The 6 year old mare is very lightly racing having just the one 3 mile point to point, followed by a NH flat race before completing 3 maiden hurdle runs to obtain a handicap mark.
She has shown ability but has also suffered from a breathing problem which explains some of her poor efforts.
I really like her today as connections have chosen to go straight over chases for her handicap debut and step her up to a staying trip.
She looks to be on a fair opening mark and racing against some exposed types she looks the best handicapped runner in the field.
At 18/ with Sky, William Hill and BetVictor I’m recommending a 1 point each way play.
She is still value at 12/1.
Lough Salt 11.52 Wetherby – 3 Mile Handicap Chase – 33/1 Bet365, Boyles – Best Odds Guaranteed 5 Places – (33/1 Generally).
The 10 year old Lough Salt has run his best races round Wetherby, winning twice and placing a further 6 times from just 18 runs.
His wins were off marks of 115 and 104 and today he runs off just 75!
Unfortunately, Lough Salt has been badly out of form this season with all 5 runs being pretty poor apart from a 13 length 5th of 13 on his third start. He ran off 90 that day and postmarked 86, which at least gives me some hope that his ability still remains.
Interestingly, for a horse that loves Wetherby, he hasn’t raced here all season and I think if he is ever going to show a return to form it’s going to be today at his favourite track, over his winning trip.
His official mark is 75, but he has to run off 79, so Edward Austin’s 5lb claim will definitely come in handy.
Lough Salt looks incredibly well handicapped and as soon as he shows a bit of form he will win. At odds of 33/1 with Bet365 and Boyles who offer Best Odds Guaranteed and 5 places I’m recommending a 1 point each way play. (Lough Salt is also available generally with other Bookmakers at 33/1, but without BOG)
He is still value at 20/1.
Takingrisks – 2.10 Wetherby – 3 Mile Handicap Chase – 33/1 Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook – 4 Places (33/1 BetVictor & Bet365),
This is the famous Tommy Whittle chase and is always a top class handicap chase in the racing calendar.
It’s always competitive and is either won by a progressive young chaser or an older sort who relishes soft ground.
I’m going to take a chance on Takingrisks who is 12 years young but who still had the ability to win the uber competitive and valuable Skybet chase earlier this year under similar conditions and runs here off a 1lb lower mark.
Connections squeezed improvement out of him when applying cheekpieces a couple of years ago and they now upgrade the headgear with blinkers.
This might be enough to see this excellent soft ground stayer defeat his younger rivals at rewarding odds.
I recommend a 1 point each way bet at 33/1 with Paddy Power and Betfair Sportsbook who offer 4 places (Bet365 also offer 33/1).
He is still value at 20/1.
Trac – 12.15 Sedgefield – 2m 4F Handicap Hurdle – 66/1 Bet365 Sky Betfred – 4 Places – 1 Point Each Way.
The 4 year old Trac has a fair bit of hurdling experience for such a young horse as he was campaigned in France where he raced 13 times over hurdles and chases.
He ran to a fair level, postmarking a high of 106. That French postmark can usually be upgraded when running in the UK.
Micky Hammond now trains in the UK, and it very much looks like he has allowed Trac to enjoy his 6 month break earlier this year as his 3 runs to date haven’t been at his previous level, but his performances have been improving, suggesting fitness and wellbeing is now improving.
I like Trac today as he raced with cheekpieces in France for all but one of his races and this has been left off by UK connections.
However it is reapplied today and now his mark has dropped to 88 he looks attractively handicapped.
I step forward in form looks likely and I’m surprised the market has him priced up at 66/1.
Micky Hammond won with a similar French type 2 months ago at a massive price, so I’m happy to suggest a 1 point each way play with Bet365/Sky/Betfred who all offer 4 places.
Trac is still value at 20/1.
