Hi,
Please see below my four tips for Saturday:
Zanza – 3.37 Kempton – 3 Mile Handicap Chase – 10/1 Bet365, Coral & Ladbrokes (11/1) – BOG – 4 places – 1 Point Each Way.
For those who have been with the service a long time, you will know I rate Zanza and put him up for the Grand Annual last year as the best-handicapped chance of the meeting. Things haven’t gone to plan, with him getting hampered both in the Grand Annual and at Aintree.
He stepped up to contest the uber-competitive 2M 5F Handicaps at Cheltenham and ran well finishing a staying 6th and 2nd. His last run was the only real blot when hitting a couple on early on and pulling up.
Zanza’s jumping has never been his strongest asset, but he has a huge engine and Cheltenham undulations have caught him out a couple of times now.
I have always thought a flat track is what he needs, like when he won impressively at Newbury, so I’m pleased he is running at Kempton.
The right-handed track is also in his favour as he tends to go slightly right at his fences.
The 3-mile trip is an unknown, but his dam was a multiple 3-mile point to point winner and stamina is usually passed down more from the mother, so I see the step up as a positive, especially how he has been outpaced over 2m 5F and stayed on.
This is a famous and competitive 3-mile chase (formerly The Racing Post Chase), so it will take some winning, but Zanza is well handicapped (read my previous write below).
At 10/1 with he is still an each-way price and I recommend 1 point each way.
He is still value at 7/1.
Zanza – Grand Annual Chase 2M Handicap Chase – (Wednesday) – 14/1 Sporting Index – 1 point each way.
Well, I’m so sorry to subscribers that I waited an extra day to put up my first ante-post bet in the Cheltenham Festival handicaps as the 22/1 I advised yesterday has unfortunately gone and he is best priced 14/1 (I’m sick!).
The horse in question is Zanza, and annoyingly the legendary Racing Post tipster, Tom Segal, commonly known as Pricewise has tipped up Zanza in Thursday’s Racing Post. This has caused the price to collapse.
Zanza is seven years old and has been progressing nicely over the past two seasons. Last year he won a handicap hurdle off 136 and then ran in the three most prestigious and hotly contested handicap hurdles in the Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham, The Ladbroke Hurdle at Ascot, and Betfair Hurdle at Newbury. He acquitted himself well at a time when he was still very green and pulling hard in his races and that experience will have done him the world of good to face the challenge of a Cheltenham Festival handicap.
This season he has gone novice chasing and progressed with every run. On his second start, he finished an eye-catching 12 length second to Allmankind (who is 3rd favourite for the Arkle) and could easily have finished closer if ridden out properly, but it was a good experience. He followed this up with an impressive win at Newbury in a handicap off 136 where he won going away by 5 lengths.
His latest run was at Cheltenham in a really strong run race where he was travelling supremely well tracking the leaders before falling 3 out. You can never be sure how he would have finished but he was full of running and looked sure to be involved at the finish.
The winner of that race was Sky Pirate, who ran off 134, and has gone on to win again and is now rated 152. Sky Pirate is an 8/1 favourite for the Grand Annual. The second was Ibleo who ran off 137 and has subsequently won twice and is now rated 154, he is 16/1 for the Grand Annual.
Zanza is running off the same mark so will be getting an 18lb & 17lb pull at the weights with these two market principles.
The icing on the cake is the ground. When he ran against Sky Pirate and Ibleo it was soft, but Zanza is a top of the ground horse, which makes his Cheltenham run even more impressive. Indeed, Phillip Hobbs has already said that Zanza won’t run in the Grand Annual if the ground is soft.
It now looks like the long-range forecast is for dry weather at the Cheltenham Festival and the going on the Wednesday is very likely to be good/soft. Consequently, he will probably have his perfect conditions.
You should note that Zanza is entered for a race at Doncaster this Saturday (and should be backed, if he runs!!), if he wins, he will only receive a maximum 5lb penalty and with the ground looking like being on the fast side I think Phillip Hobbs will run to get some more experience into Zanza.
If he wins, he will probably go off favourite for the Grand Annual. If he runs at Doncaster and flops, then he will probably miss Cheltenham.
This is where the Non-Runner No Bet angle comes into play. I am recommending you back him now, take this offer, and if he flops at the weekend and doesn’t run at Cheltenham, then you can claim your money back. If he wins, we have a great each-way bet for one of the favourites at the Festival.
He looks a fantastic bet and I’m just sorry I didn’t advise you all when I backed him two weeks ago at 33/1!!! I will attach my betting slip to this email as proof!!!
Gwencily Berbas – 3.15 Newcastle – 4m Handicap Chase – 28/1 Ladbrokes, Coral, Bet365 (33/1) – BOG – 1 Point Each Way.
This is the famous Eider Chase and a proper stamina test, but at least the ground is good to soft, so the real sloggers probably won’t be fast enough to win it.
I like the look of Gwencily Berbas, who won over 3m 6F at Exeter, which was the first time he had tried an extreme trip and he won easily.
He didn’t follow up in the London National and was pulled up, but that was due to the unsuitable heavy ground, but today’s good to soft is ideal.
If he hadn’t pulled up last time Gwencily Berbas would be a single figure price today, and with him being so unexposed at the trip, and only being 3lb higher in the weights (taking his 3lb claimer into account) we have to give him another chance at 33/1.
I, therefore, recommend 1 point each way with
He is still value at 12/1.
Oh This Is Us – 2.40 Lingfield – 1m Handicap – 18/1 Ladbrokes, Coral, Betfred – 3 Places
This is a good quality (0-105) handicap and is historically a strong field, this year looks up to the grade.
Oh This is Us won this race decisively in 2019 off 110 and returns today off 102. He loves Lingfield and his turn of foot works best going around the sharp left-handed bend and quickening past his rivals.
Oh This Is Us won a Group 3 in June 2022, but his form flattened slightly thereafter, but that was mainly over 7F, whereas he is best over 1 mile.
He had a break from Autumn onwards and just had a pipe opener recently, which I’m sure was a prep to put him right for a repeat bid in this race.
At 18/1 he has a lot going for him, especially considering we can get 3 places with Ladbrokes, Coral and Betfred in this 7 7runner races. I, therefore, recommend 1 point each way.
He is still value at 10/1.
Grey Habit – 3.43 Fairyhouse – 2m 7.5F Handicap Hurdle – 50/1 Bet365 Paddy Power BetVictor – 1 Point Each Way.
The 5/4 favourite Where’s Franky goes for a hattrick after winning his last two races. He looks ahead of the handicapper, but both those wins were on good/yielding and today’s heavy going is a completely different test. With no form on this type of going, he is well worth taking on.
Grey Habit is a slow galloping mare that needs deep ground and a stiff galloping track. Fairyhouse fits the profile, and it’s no surprise she has run her best races here, winning off a mark of 80 and placing last season off 86.
She changed stables after last season and is with a small owner-trainer, so she would have needed her first two runs of the season. These were still respectable and made progression with the second run, which was not run to suit, as she likes to be dropped out and stay on through horses, but the pace was very slow, and the prominent horses quickened away from her.
A return to Fairyhouse over 3 miles looks ideal, so does the booking of Sam Ewing, a pro-jockey. Grey Habit needs plenty of stoking a riding and he will be stronger in the plate than previous apprentices riders.
At 50/1 she is worth taking on the favourite, and if she can place in the first 5, we can still make a nice profit.
She is still value at 25/1.
