Hi,
Please see below my two tips for Wednesday:
Breckland – 7.30 Kempton – 7F Handicap – 20/1 Bet365 – 1 Point Each Way.
I put up Breckland last month on his belated seasonal debut as I very much see him as a Kempton specialist, and he was back to his favourite track.
That was over a mile and as it turned out he really needed the run and that looked very much like a pipe opener.
After one more run this year at Lingfield, Breckland returns to Kempton over the 7F trip which suited him so well last year off only a 2lb higher mark.
Theodore Ladd’s 3lb claim brings him below his winning mark and considering he won by 7 lengths he looks very well in.
He is a front runner, so his draw in stall 8 shouldn’t inconvenience him and the 20/1 odds with Bet365 looks very appealing.
He still looks value at 10/1.
Please see my previous write up below for reference:
Breckland – 1.30 Kempton – 1 Mile Handicap – 25/1 Bet365 – 1 point each way.
The 3 year old Breckland went in my tracker last season when he absolutely bolted up at Kempton over 7F.
He led the field that day and when he hit the Kempton home straight, he quickened impressively, off a mark of 61, winning by 7 lengths.
I put him down as a potential Kempton specialist as I’ve seen this quickening quality before in numerous Class 3 to Class 6 horses.
Breckland didn’t go on from that win, being far too free in his races and disappointing on his last three starts.
It was no surprise to see Breckland being subsequently gelded, and he now makes his seasonal debut over 1 mile. It’s a good sign that Trainer, Michael Appleby has a higher 13% strike rate with first time gelded horses than his standard 11% win rate.
Breckland may need the run today, but connections have retained the hood and brought him back to Kempton. He was originally put up 14lb for that impressive win, so the fact he gets in here off just 69, with good claimer Theodore Ladd taking another 3lb off means he is only running off 5lb higher mark.
As a front runner, stall 1 also looks perfect for him.
The 1 mile trip looks well within his compass based upon his breeding and considering we can get 25/1 with Bet365 (3 places) he is well worth risking first time out.
I therefore recommend 1 point each way.
He is still value at 12/1.
Intoxication – 8.30 Kempton – 2 Mile Handicap – 66/1 William Hill – 4 Places – 1 Point Each Way.
I put up the lightly raced Intoxication last time out, please read the previous write up below.
He ran well last time out finishing a staying on 4th and this further step up to 2 miles is definitely worth a try.
He has been dropped another pound to 47 and being so unexposed if he stays he must have a good chance.
In his last race he was settled in rear by an inexperienced jockey and was never really put in the race until the home straight. By then the easy winner had flown, but Intoxication stuck on under a soft ride and that run was very promising run.
An experienced pro jockey, Liam Jones, takes the ride and that has to be a positive.
Intoxication is a 66/1 shot in this race which is bizarre considering his promising 4th last time and is huge value.
I’m recommending 1 point each way.
He is still value at 14/1.
Intoxication – 8.15 Kempton – 1m 4F Handicap – 22/1 Skybet – 4 places – 1 Point Each Way.
This 3 year old middle distance handicap has three horses at the head of the market that have already stepped up in trip and shown some improved form, but without setting a high standard. It maybe they will progress a bit further to win this, but I think there is one lurking further down the betting that will improve for the step up in trip and win at rewarding odds of 22/1.
Mark Usher has his team in good form with 60% of his recent runners running to form, including 1 winner.
He sends Intoxication into the race for only her second handicap run. She ran her maidens over 7F and a mile and looked like she needed further. This at least gave her a nice low handicap of 51.
On her handicap debut she was stepped up to 1m 2F where she still showed inexperience and greenness being sluggish at the start and well in rear. But she stayed on nicely in the home straight to finish 7 lengths 7th of 13 and gave the impression further would suit. Today’s 1m 4F looks ideal.
The handicapper has dropped her a handy 3lb and with apprentice Ellie Mackenzie taking a further 5lb off she runs off just 43 which gives her a fine chance in this field.
Intoxication has a nice draw in stall 1 and whilst I’m not expecting her to go forward and lead, I’m hoping she’s well away and is on the rail handy, or worst case in midfield.
At 22/1 with Skybet, who offer 4 places, Intoxication looks excellent value and I recommend 1 point each way.
She still looks value at 12/1.
