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Hanbury Racing – 30 November 2021

Hi,

Please see my two tips for Tuesday:

Unblinking – 3.30 Southwell – 2m 4F Handicap Hurdle – 50/1 Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, BetVictor – 1.5 Points Each Way.

Unblinking has some great form in the book, when trained by Nigel Twiston Davis he won a couple of handicap hurdles, the best being over 2m 5F off a mark of 105, with Jordan Nailor jocked up.

There were more good efforts with Jordan on board including a second on good ground at Cheltenham in a hugely competitive 23 runner handicap off a mark off 105, where he postmarked 117.

It very much looks from his form and previous trainer comments that he prefers better ground.

Unblinking changed stables in 2019 to Robert Bevis, a small Owner Trainer yard. He doesn’t have many horses but trust me when I say he is a very shrewd operator!

Earlier this year I advised Danilo D’Airy from his stable at 100/1 and the horse was backed into 13/2 and absolutely bolted up on the bridle!! Danilo had been off for two years and was nursed back to health with 3 runs before he won. Interestingly Jordan Nailor was also the jockey that day!

Unblinking has a similar profile. He was off for a year (probably with a tendon) and just had three runs for Robert Bevis between December 2021 and February 2021, all on unsuitable heavy winter ground. Once again, these looked like rehabilitation runs to help nurse him back to health.

I really like Unblinking’s chances today as he historically runs best when fresh, including one of his victories. I’m therefore thinking Robert Bevis may well have him fit and ready for today’s seasonal reappearance.

Conditions look perfect for him. The ground is good, good/soft, which will be ideal. He is running over his winning trip of 2 two and a half miles and the left handed flat track of Southwell will very much suit.

Unblinking looks really well handicapped off 93 and with Jordan Nailor jocked up (taking off a handy 3lb) there is much to like about his chances, especially the 50/1 available with Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook and BetVictor and 5 places available in this 16 runner event!

It could well be I’m reading between the lines too much and Unblinking might need some more runs back on the track to find his form, but with so much in his favour, and his best when fresh profile, the 50/1 is just far too big and I’m recommending 1.5 points each way.

I think he is still value at 16/1.

Stunsail – 1.55 Southwell – 2 Mile National Hunt Flat Race – 150/1 Bet365 & Boyles (BOG) Plus 1501 Betfair Sportsbook & BetVictor – 1 Point Each Way.

This is a run of the mill National Hunt flat race at a second tier track which has historically been won by horses postmarking between 104 and 112.

With such good records in NH flat races it’s no surprise to see at the head of the market Nicky Henderson’s Bridal Knot, and Fergal O’Brien’s Crambo. Jonjo O’Neil and Henry Daly also both have winning pointer to pointers, so these complete the 4 market leaders.

All of the above horses are making there seasonal debuts so it’s very likely that most of them will be just gaining some experience and will be much fitter and sharper after this run.

Consequently I feel Stunsail might just have a chance to win or run into a place at a huge price of 150/1.

Stunsail boasts the best prove NH flat form in the field when he postmarked 96 on his debut on good ground. He only needs to improve 7lb -14lb to put him right in the frame here.

His second run was disappointing (postmarked 76), but that can be forgiven as it was on heavy ground which didn’t suit. I know this as the trainer pulled him out from another engagement due to unsuitable heavy ground.

Stunsail has changed to Claire Dyson’s small yard who have only run 9 times in NH flat races and it’s good to see they managed one win. That win came from a horse running on its seasonal debut when the horse wore a first time tongue tie.

Stunsail will be making his seasonal debut and is sporting a first time hood, so it looks like the stable are trying to get a good run out of him.

I’m therefore happy to take a chance Stunsail can run into a place at massive odds of 150/1, and you never know, he ran his best race when fresh on his debut so it might be the right time for him to catch out the bigger stables.

I’m recommending 1 point each way at 150/1 with Bet365 or Boylesports who both offer Best Odds guaranteed. Please note BetVictor, Betfair Sportsbook and Betfred also offer 150/1 but are not BOG.

Stunsail is still value at 33/1.

MEGA Tipsters Record Month

Month – December 2020

Profit to £25 Stake: £4,381
Points Profit: 175.25
ROI:  146.04%

Tipster of the Month

Month – February 2021

Profit to £25 Stake: £1,325
Points Profit: 53
ROI: 56%

Portfolio Performance

Profit to £25 Stake: £12,724
ROI :  27%