Hi,
Please see attached my four picks for Saturday:
Hogans Height – 2.40 Aintree – 3m 3F Handicap Chase – National Fences – 22/1 Sky & William Hill – 7 Places – (22/1 Betfair Sportsbook) – Point Each Way.
The Becher’s Chase is one of my favourite staying races of the season as it’s run over the National Fences.
The winner of this race is either an Aintree specialist who just acts so well round the unique track, or an unexposed sound jumper that’s trying the track for the first time.
The one I like is Hogans Height. I put him up in the Grand National and more recently in the Grand Sefton (that he won two years ago) but he failed to sparkle. Annoyingly last night I saw his Trainer, Jamie Snowden, give an interview where he said Hogans Height was only 60% fit for the National (suffered a sore hoof) and on his recent Sefton run was still not fit, and the ground was too quick for him. I really wish he had made these comments to the media before these races as we would have swerved him as a bet!!!
The good news is that he said Hogans Height is now fit and well and ready to run his race. We have to give Hogan another chance as he also gets his soft ground, (and with another 11mm due overnight before racing) it will be a real slog which will suit, especially off a racing weight of just 10 stone.
It’s worth remembering Hogans Height absolutely bolted up over these fences in 2019 by 16 lengths off a mark of 134 on soft ground and he races off a good mark of 136, so looks very well handicapped here. He has won over this trip before and was staying on last time over 2m 5F finishing a never nearer 6th on ground that was too fast.
At 22/1 with Skybet and William Hill (and 22/1 Betfair Sportsbook) he looks really overpriced, especially when you consider we can get 7 places for a horse that has completed in all three runs over the fences.
He is still value at 14/1.
Clan Legend – 12.55 Aintree – 2m 4F Handicap Chase – 16/1 888, Boyles – 4 places BOG (16/1 Bet 365) – 1 Point Each Way.
This is always a competitive handicap and Clan Legend won it well last year off a mark of 127 on similar ground that he will get today.
He has only run three times since, including his recent seasonal reappearance. It was a good sign Clan finished a close 2.5 length 3rd in that comeback which shows he is in good form. Last year he was well down the field on his reappearance before landing this event in 2020.
With Clan Legend expected to come on significantly for the run he should be in with a big chance of a repeat win off a 6lb higher mark.
The 16/1 available with 888 and Boyles, who offer 4 places and best odds guaranteed (and 16/1 with Betfair amongst others) looks overpriced and I therefore recommend 1 point each way.
He is still value at 12/1.
Highway One O Two – 3.15 Aintree – 2m 4F Handicap Hurdle – 25/1 Paddy Power/Betfair Sportsbook/Bet Victor0 – 4 places – 1 Point Each Way. (33/1 with Bet365)
The 6 year old Highway One O Two won three races in his juvenile (4 year old) campaign, including a Grade 2. All of these were over 2 miles.
He is a natural jumper of a hurdle and will enjoy a return to today’s soft going.
He was quite a keen sort as a younger horse so has been kept to the minimum 2 mile trip, but now he is an older horse I feel he is a little calmer so should see out a longer trip.
Highway One O One has been running generally well in the top 2 mile handicaps but recently he has been getting outpaced and I really feel this step up in trip is what he is now craving.
The handicapper has eased him to 127 and considering a Grade 2 winner is normally rated 140+ he now looks dangerously handicapped.
Connections have brought in the very good Daryl Jacob in for the ride and I’m hopeful he can get him settled in a prominent position.
The 25/1 looks a massive price for his chances and I therefore recommend 1 point each way with Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook and BetVictor who all offer 4 places.
Please note you can get 33/1 with Bet365.
He is still value at 14/1.
Supreme Escape – 1.22 Chepstow – 3 Mile Handicap Chase – 20/1 Bet365/William Hill/SBK – 1 Point Each Way.
This is more commonly known as the Welsh National trial and many of these will be using this as a stepping stone to the main event.
Supreme Escape is at the bottom of the handicap (4lb wrong at the weights) and needs to win this to give him any chance to get into the Welsh National.
Supreme Escape is only 7 and is lightly raced having only 12 career races, with 6 of these being over chases.
He has already won two chases and came into his own when winning at Chepstow over 3m 6F. This proves he is stamina ladened, so in hindsight did really well to win over 2m 4F over hurdles.
That run is significant as it was also at Chepstow and really proves he acts seriously well at the track.
Cheekpieces were applied to him last season, which really helped him, but on his seasonal debut over hurdles they were not applied. This looks very much like a prep/fitness run which should have him spot on for his first big target of the season.
Today’s 3 mile trip is really the minimum I would want to see, especially on good/soft ground. But he loves Chepstow and his prominent racing stye is ideal for the track.
I’m confident in the future Supreme Escape will rate much higher than his current 120 mark, so I’m very hopeful for a big run. I’m sightly worried he may get outpaced, but he looks a rock solid each way play.
I therefore recommend 1 point each way.
He is still value at 14/1.
