Hi,
Please see my three tips for Saturday:
Graphite – 2.40 Doncaster – 1m 4F November Handicap – 50/1 Bet365 – 1 Point Each Way.
The last big handicap of the flat season as expected the ground is soft. That will discount many in the field and bring in the soft ground specialists.
You need to be unexposed or have a touch of class to win this and I like the chances of the ex-French recruit Graphite. He was originally a Godolphin horse and won a couple of 1m Group 3’s as a younger horse.
Graphite is a really interesting older horse as he started life in 2 year old maidens over 1 mile, which normally suggests that connections knew he would step up in time, but the powerful connections kept him over that trip for his 3 and 4 year old career.
That wasn’t a bad call as he won his Group 3’s and ran well in a Group 2 before getting injured needing 18 months off. Graphite was sold on, and the small Newmarket trainer T J Kent picked him up cheaply at the sales.
That looked a shrewd bit of business as Graphite showed he still retained his ability over a mile, before stepping up to 1m 4F.
Graphite showed he stayed the trip when winning an Ascot handicap on Shergar Gold Cup day of a mark of 92.
He had a min break after that and I’m sure he has been laid out for today as he loves cut in the ground and considering he has postmarked 115 in the past looks really well weighted off 95.
He was given a little run out in October which I’m sure was a prep race for today.
For a 7 year old he is really unexposed over this 1m 4F trip and now he has proven to stay the trip he is of particular interest off his lowly handicap on his preferred soft ground. Remember he won two Group 3’s so could easily warrant carrying top weight of around 105-110, but instead runs off just 95.
The icing on the cake is the 50/1 with Bet365 who offer 5 places.
He is still value at 16/1.
Giorgio Vasari – 6.00 Chelmsford – 6F Handicap – 18/1 888 BOG – 4 places – 1 Point Each Way.
Giorgio Vasari was originally trained by the mighty Aiden O’Brien and thought good enough to run in the 2 year old Group 1 Phoenix Stakes over 6F.
He disappointed in his 3 year old career and was sold onto UK connections and went into training with Derek Shaw.
Being rated 92 it was not surprise to see Derek Shaw get him dropped down the handicap and now after just 6 runs is down to a mark of 69 and can race in his first class 5 today.
His headgear has been removed and I think the horse will react well to a bit of freedom.
More of a positive is the return to a polytrack surface. He has run on it three times and has postmarked in the 80’s each time, including on his debut with Derek Shaw. Considering his mark is 69 that gives him a good chance today.
At 18/1 with 888sport, who offer BOG, is a fair each way play, and I recommend 1 point each way.
He is still value at 14/1.
Hogan’s Height – 2.15 Aintree – 2m 5F Handicap Chase – 15/2 Bet365 – 1 Point Each Way.
Hogan’s Height absolutely dotted up in this race in 2019 off a mark of 134 and connections then hatched a plan to run in the Grand National. That came to realisation last year, but he didn’t run to form there and has dropped to a mark of 138 which wont be high enough to get another crack at the big one.
Consequently connections need to win this and I’m sure he will be fully tuned to give his best.
This is a great race in it’s own right so we can look forward to a great spectacle.
With the ground perfectly soft for Hogan and his proven ability to act round this unique course we I am happy to go in a little shorter than I normally would recommend.
At 15/2 with Bet365 I’m happy to recommend a 1 point each way play.
He is still value at 6/1, but I would be doing a straight win at that price.
