Hi
Please see my four picks four Monday:
Norwegian Woods – 3.55 Southwell – 2m 4F Handicap Hurdle – 125/1 Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, BetVictor – 4 Places -1 Point Each Way.
Southwell is the flattest track in the country and has fixed brush hurdles which are more substantial and are like mini chases and are better suited to chasing types who jump a little high.
In 2019 Norwegian Wood’s won convincingly by 8 lengths at Southwell off a mark of 99, on soft ground, and considering that’s his only victory in 15 starts and his only start at Southwell, it could well be he turns out to be a course specialist.
He has been lightly raced over the last two years and connections tried chasing for three runs, which didn’t go too well, but this could also have been down to lack of fitness.
He returned to hurdles in February, for his last run, off a 68-day break which was a good experience and helped his fitness. A return to Southwell’s fixed brush hurdles, which he jumped so well, is a big positive.
He looks well handicapped of 94, and with the excellent apprentice, Charlie Price, taking a valuable 3lb off his net mark of 91 is now 8lb lower than his winning mark.
The soft ground is ideal, so there is a lot to like, and I’m gobsmacked we can back him at 125/1!!!!
I, therefore, recommend 1 point each way, he is still value at 20/1.
Choix Des Armes – 2.20 Wetherby – 2m Handicap Chase – 25/1 Bet365, Ladbrokes, Coral – BOG – 1 Point Each Way.
I put up Choix Des Armes last time out and I am giving this free-running sort another chance now he drops back to the minimum trip of 2 miles, a distance he won over when trained by Paul Nicholl’s
He seems to enjoy a flat track, so Wetherby will suit, but probably the biggest single factor is the prevailing heavy going. Choix Des Armes travelled supremely well on heavy to win his race, and that might just be the secret to him.
He won off a mark of 107 and gets in here of just 82 and with Sean Quinlan on board, the North’s second-best jockey, we must have a good chance.
At 25/1 we have to get involved and I recommend 1 point each way.
He is still value at 12/1
Please read my previous write up below:
Choix Des Armes – 2.25 Musselburgh – 3m Handicap Chase – 33/1 Bet365 – 1 point each way.
Choixs Des Armes was originally owned by powerful connections and trained by Paul Nicholls.
He ran to a good level, winning a maiden hurdle and postmarking a high of 122.
The high expectations of connections were not met so Chois Des Armes was sold on and is now trained by Alison Hamilton.
Unsurprisingly his form went backward in his first 3 runs, which included his first run over chases. That day he jumped a little novicey and hung right before being pulled up. That run could be forgotten as the mud was found in his throat post-race.
His 2019/20 season was cut short and returned after a year off in December 2020. He has only run once this season, back over hurdles, which resulted in him pulling up. He would have needed that run and it appears he also had a breathing issue which resulted in a wind operation shortly after.
He is going back chasing today with that run under his belt and if the breathing op works, then he has a good chance of being competitive as he has dropped nicely in the handicap to just 100.
Going right-handed will certainly help him today, so will the small field. He has a fantastic horseman in Ross Chapman who is better with his chasing rides and I’m sure connections have bought him in to help get the best out of Choix Des Armes.
At 33/1 in this 6 runner field, he has a good chance of being competitive and I recommend 1 point each way.
Glen Ava – 4.50 Leopardstown – 2m 5F Handicap Chase – 66/1 Bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook – 5 places – 1 Point Each Way
I put up Glen Ava two runs ago, where she nicked a 66/1 place for us in a 22 runner field.
The jockey used exaggerated hold-up tactics which left him far too much to do, so that effort can be marked up.
He flopped last time, but blinkers were tried, and he ran too freely, so reverts to cheekpieces. A good move in my book.
This is an amateur race and I like the jockey booking, P C Bannon, as he previously won on the horse (from 5 runs) and generally raced him prominently.
At 66/1 he is a worthy each-way play and we get 5 places with Bet365, Paddy Power, and Betfair Sportsbook.
He is still value at 25/1.
Glen Ava – 3.25 Navan – 3 Mile Handicap chase – 66/1 Ladbrokes, Coral, Boyles – BOG – 5 Places – 1 Point each Way.
This 24 runner handicap chase is dominated by the 6/5 favourite, Routine Excellence, who was previously subject of a massive gamble and bolted up in a 2m 3f maiden hurdle.
He postmarked 112 that day and runs here in a handicap chase off a lenient-looking mark of 88.
The market is right to keep him on his side, but I always feel very nervous about backing a horse next time out after a gamble, as the money has been won backing at big prices, and more often than not, they don’t follow up.
I feel it’s particularly risky as the first-time tongue-tie applied for his gambled-on win has been removed today and he steps up to 3 miles. I just feel this gives connections excuses for the defeat!
Consequently, I’m looking elsewhere, and Glen Ava looks a fascinating runner, the mare is only 6, very unexposed, and makes her handicap chase debut off a nice mark.
She previously won a 3 mile Point To Point, making all, on her 4th start, and then has raced under rules just the 3 times in hot maiden chases, where she has been outclassed, but more importantly, has been given very tender handling.
Despite the cosy rides in the rear, she still postmarked 92 last time out, over an inadequate 2m 5F and there is undoubtedly more to come!
Now she goes into her first handicap off 88 and stepped up in trip I’m sure we will see a much more prominently ridden horse!
Because she is based with a small trainer, the market has her overpriced at 66/1 with Ladbrokes, Coral, Boyles, and Quinnbet, who all offer BOG and 5 places, she could easily upset the favourite, or place at huge odds.
I recommend 1 point each way, she is still value at 20/1.
Peckham Springs – 3.10 Leopardstown – 2-mile Handicap Hurdle – 50/1 Bet365, Ladbrokes, Coral – 5 Places – BOG – 1 Point Each Way.
Peckham Springs is only five, but has already shown ability, firstly on the flat postmarking a high of 73, before going hurdling as a 3-year-old juvenile.
He took well to hurdling and won a maiden hurdle, postmarking 112.
He ran well in a hot Navan handicap, where he finished a staying on 5th on unsuitable good/fast ground.
A wind problem flared up so a tongue tie was deployed for his seasonal reappearance over 2 mile 4f. This looked like just a pipe-opener and he went into my tracker to back when he returned to 2 miles and slower ground.
Well, he unseated his rider last time out (soft unseat caused by crowding) and returns to action here back to 2 miles.
To be honest, I would like a little more juice in the ground, as it’s currently yielding (good/soft), but it’s still slower than last time, and the Leopardstown track is a galloping track with a stiff uphill finish, which will help him.
Running off 109 is a fair mark, and the 50/1 is huge for his chances, so I recommend 1 point each way.
He is still value at 25/1.
