Hi
Please see my two tips for Thursday:
Merchant In Milan – 3.40 Taunton – 3 Mile Handicap Hurdle – 66/1 Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, BetVictor – 1 Point Each Way.
The 9 year old Merchant In Milan started life in a couple of 3 mile Irish point to points and acquitted himself fairly well finishing 4th, 11 lengths behind a horse that is now rated 125.
He went under rules and ran his 3 maiden hurdles over 2 miles and again showed a degree of promise postmarking 80 & 81 and looked sure to be well handicapped when stepping up to a more suitable trip.
Unfortunately, he’s had terrible luck with injury needing 4 years out before returning to action in April this year for his rather belated handicap debut off a mark of 84.
This was over 2m 3F at today’s Taunton track and he ran a hugely promising race before tiring late on, only losing by 11 lengths. The performance could also be marked up as he suffered a bad cut during the race and was lame directly afterwards.
It meant another enforced period on the side lines and Merchant of Milan only returned to action recently in November for his seasonal debut over 2m 5F. Where he was settled out the back and was making some headway late on but unseated his rider. This looked a freak fall as another horse fell in front of him and Merchant of Milan’s jockey lost his balance trying to avoid the faller.
That run will have blown the cobwebs away and considering how well he has gone fresh in the past I feel the he should now be fit enough to run his race today.
Connections have pushed him up to 3 miles for the very first time and considering he is bred for the trip and ran well in that 3 mile point to point I feel it’s a good move for the horse.
He runs off just 78, so looks well handicapped and the very good 3lb claimer Charlie Price nets his mark down to just 75. He has also run his best two races under rules at Taunton on good ground so will act well and has conditions to suit.
The Trainer Helen Nelmes doesn’t have too many winners, but her latest runner would have won but for breaking down at the second last. It was sad for connections, but it was interesting that Charlie Price was on board, which bodes well for Merchant of Milan’s chances.
At 66/1 with Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook and BetVictor he looks a good each way play, and I recommend 1 point each way.
He is still value at 25/1.
Highway One O Two – 2.40 Taunton – 2m 3F Handicap Hurdle – 14/1 Coral, Betfred, BetVictor – 4 Places – 1 Point Each Way.
I put up Highway One O Two at the weekend, but he was a non-runner (probably due to the desperate ground).
I like that he runs here over an intermediate trip of 2m 3F and takes a drop class here. He is a Grade 2 winner over hurdles (round a right handed track) but has been finding the 2 mile trip in Class 1 & 2 handicaps too sharp. So this class 3 over 3F further should make him a great chance.
At 14/1 he looks a rock solid each way play, and I therefore recommend 1 point each way.
He is still value at 10/1.
Please see my previous write up below for more information:
Highway One O Two – 3.15 Aintree – 2m 4F Handicap Hurdle – 25/1 Paddy Power/Betfair Sportsbook/Bet Victor – 4 places – 1 Point Each Way. (33/1 with Bet365)
The 6 year old Highway One O Two won three races in his juvenile (4 year old) campaign, including a Grade 2. All of these were over 2 miles.
He is a natural jumper of a hurdle and will enjoy a return to today’s soft going.
He was quite a keen sort as a younger horse so has been kept to the minimum 2 mile trip, but now he is an older horse I feel he is a little calmer so should see out a longer trip.
Highway One O One has been running generally well in the top 2 mile handicaps but recently he has been getting outpaced and I really feel this step up in trip is what he is now craving.
The handicapper has eased him to 127 and considering a Grade 2 winner is normally rated 140+ he now looks dangerously handicapped.
Connections have brought in the very good Daryl Jacob for the ride and I’m hopeful he can get him settled in a prominent position.
The 25/1 looks a massive price for his chances and I therefore recommend 1 point each way with Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook and BetVictor who all offer 4 places.
Please note you can get 33/1 with Bet365.
