Hi,
Please see my two tips for Monday 13th September:
International Lion – 3.05 Thirsk – 1m 4F Handicap – 125/1 Skybet – 1 point each way.
This race revolves around the progressive Hesperis who has won 3 from 5 handicaps, including a cosy last time out win off 62 and the market has her quite rightly odds on.
Today she is up 8lb and it’s very likely there is more to come. But she still has to improve to win again.
It’s also no surprise she is odds on as the 5 runners look a sorry bunch with the exception of Hooflepuff who won last time out, but that was on the all-weather and he doesn’t have any turf form.
I do see an opportunity in this race as the outsider of the field, International Lion, sits as the 125/1 outsider and I think he could easily come second which would give us 30 points profit. Plus the huge up side if he could surprise the favourite.
International Lion showed his liking for today’s course with his sole win coming at the track over 1 mile as a two year old off a mark of 60. Today he runs off 50.
I think he likes a flat track and is just a galloper. He may well get out paced when they quicken but will hopefully stay on to grab a place or maybe even win it if the favourite underperforms.
At 125/1 with Skybet this is a shrewd play and I recommend 1 point each way.
He is still value at 40/1.
Intoxication – 8.15 Kempton – 1m 4F Handicap – 22/1 Skybet – 4 places – 1 Point Each Way.
This 3 year old middle distance handicap has three horses at the head of the market that have already stepped up in trip and shown some improved form, but without setting a high standard. It maybe they will progress a bit further to win this, but I think there is one lurking further down the betting that will improve for the step up in trip and win at rewarding odds of 22/1.
Mark Usher has his team in good form with 60% of his recent runners running to form, including 1 winner.
He sends Intoxication into the race for only her second handicap run. She ran her maidens over 7F and a mile and looked like she needed further. This at least gave her a nice low handicap of 51.
On her handicap debut she was stepped up to 1m 2F where she still showed inexperience and greenness being sluggish at the start and being in rear. But she stayed on nicely in the home straight to finish 7 lengths 7th of 13 and gave the impression further would suit her better. Today’s 1m 4F look ideal.
The handicapper has dropped her a handy 3lb and with apprentice Ellie Mackenzie taking a further 5lb off she runs off just 43 which gives her a fine chance in this field.
Intoxication has a nice draw in stall 1 and whilst I’m not expecting her to go forward and lead, I’m hoping she’s well away and is on the rail handy, or worst case in midfield.
At 22/1 with Skybet, who offer 4 places, Intoxication looks excellent value and I recommend 1 point each way.
She still looks value at 12/1.
