Hi
Please see attached my three tips for Tuesday:
Welsby – 1.20 Chepstow – 2m 3.5F Novice Hurdle – 150/1 Bet365 – 1 Point Each Way.
This novice hurdle is dominated by Paul Nicholls’ odds on favourite Mr Glass who won two National Hunt Flat races last season. He makes his debut over hurdles and could be decent, but I always feel when a horse wins a NH flat race that doesn’t necessarily mean he will be a natural jumper and while Nicholl’s will have schooled him enough, he will still be vulnerable on his first start of the season.
There are other big stables on show, but they don’t appear to be any other stable stars amongst them and are just short in the market by stable reputation rather than proven ability on the track.
The one I like at a huge price is Welsby, who was originally owned by the late Trevor Hemmings and trained by Nicky Henderson. He won first time out in a National Hunt flat race in 2017 but must have suffered an injury as he didn’t race again and was sold on.
Welsby didn’t run for four years and only made his hurdles debut over 2 miles 18 days ago. That was a highly satisfactory run as he jumped a hurdle nice and slickly and looked a natural. He tracked the leaders but just blew up on the second circuit and wasn’t given a hard time at all.
Welsby will certainly come on for the run and is stepped up today to a much more suitable 2m 4F and with his ability proven after winning a fair Aintree NH flat race and his jumping assured it’s worth taking a chance on him at remarkably generous odds of 150/1 with Bet365.
I’m recommending 1 point each way with Bet365 and he is still value at 33/1.
Lantiern – 4.00 Newcastle – 2 Mile Handicap – 66/1 Skybet – 4 places – 1 Point Each Way.
Lantiern was originally trained by Harry Whittingham and showed good form and ability over jumps getting to a rating of 122. More interesting is his National Hunt flat record postmarking a high of 124 and winning 2 and placing 3 times from 7 starts.
After his two latest successful NH flat races in early 2021 connections decided to get a flat racing with him and considering he did all his running over 2 miles it was interesting that they dropped him down to 1m 2F and 1m 4F, plus they removed his regular hood.
Unsurprisingly Lantiern didn’t show much at all, and the handicapper has allocated him an incredibly low mark of 44!!
Lantiern had an 85 day break and came back recently over 1m 4F for his handicap debut and was backed in from 16/1 to 10/1, but he was slowly away from the widest draw and was always travelling outside his comfort zone over the trip and was never involved.
This outing will have helped his fitness and I see no reason why he shouldn’t take a step forward now he is over his ideal trip of 2 miles and has a good inside draw in stall 1.
I’m not expecting him to go forward, but hopefully he can be held up in midfield on the inside rail and travel at a more comfortable pace for him and make his move up the home straight.
From a handicap perspective Lantiern looks amazing well in. He postmark 124 in a 2020 NH flat race at Wolverhampton, which is also a tapeta left handed track like Newcastle and if you convert that to a flat rating that would be assessed at around the 80 mark. He also ran in February 2021 to 117 which in flat term is around 73.
I appreciate he has hardly beaten a rival in four runs, but they were over too shorter trips with no hood (which is on today) and was in real terms being ridden just to get a kind handicap mark, which they now have!!
Amazingly he can be backed at 66/1 generally, but with Skybet offering 4 places I’m recommending go with them at 1 point each way.
He is still value at 12/1.
Traveller – 6.10 Newcastle – 1m Handicap – 20/1 Bet365 – 1 Point Each Way.
Finished second last time up in a Class 6 handicapped when blinkered for the first time and was really unlucky not to win as he pulled clear of the field but was out gunned by another well handicapped horse.
That was harsh as he was 2.5 lengths clear of the remainder of the field and could have looked like a nice winner without the other horse spoiling the party! That was off a mark of 62 and today he gets in here off 60 but does go up in grade to a Class 4.
I’m no too concerned about the raise in class as he has run well in Class 4’s in the past off marks in the 70’s so to me still looks well handicapped (he has won off 65 in the past).
At 20/1 with Bet365 he looks a fair each way play, and I recommend 1 point each way.
He still looks value at 12/1.
