Hi,
Please see below my four tips for today:
Rockesbury – 5.15 Yarmouth – 6F Handicap – 16/1 Bet365 – 1 point each way .
I put up Rockesbury yesterday at his favourite track and ran a solid race to grab a 3rd and give us a solid place pick up.
Interestingly Rockesbury is entered to run just a day later at Yarmouth, and I feel we can go in again as earlier this season Rockesbury won over course and distance at Yarmouth when he had also run the day before.
He gets in here off 56 and having won off 55 at Yarmouth earlier this year a similar performance gives him every chance of victory.
I’m particularly keen today as the market has priced him up at 16/1 with Bet365 and after showing good form yesterday he should be much shorter. Especially when you consider the opposition.
The favourite Irish Times won last time out, but that was on the all-weather and he has no form on the turf. Little Sunflower also won last time out, but that was over 7F and has no form over 6F. Lincoln Red was just touched off by a nose by Rockesbury and they both run off 1lb higher. Lincoln is technically 3lb better off as he has a 3lb claimer taking over from Jack Mitchell. But Jack is a really strong jockey and I’m not convinced the 3lb claimer can make that pay.
Rockesbury might be a non-runner if the Trainer feels he over exerted himself yesterday, but if he does run, he should be a 7/1 shot, so let’s hope he takes his chance!
I recommend 1 point each way with Bet365 at 16/1.
Please see yesterday’s write up below for reference:
Rockesbury – 3.10 Chelmsford – 6F Handicap – 14/1 Bet365 – 1 point each way.
Rockesbury is another Chelmsford specialist with 3 wins from just 6 starts.
He has only run once at Chelmsford this season, which was his seasonal pipe-opener, and he generally needs a few runs under his belt to hit winning form. So he did well under the circumstances to only lose by 1.5 lengths off a mark of 55.
He has been in form this season winning at Yarmouth four runs ago, but the next two starts were below par. That wasn’t a complete surprise as Rockesbury ran on consecutive days, winning on the second start, so the trainer probably eased off his work at home to allow him some rest.
His latest run was a step in the right direction and with his form returning and him heading back to his favourite Chelmsford track off a mark of 56, (which is just 1lb higher than his previous winning mark) he must have a good chance.
We can get 14/1 on Rockesbury which allows us to make an each way play and I therefore recommend a 1 point win.
He is still value at 10/1.
Destroyer – 4.20 Pontefract – 1m Handicap – 12/1 Skybet – 1 Point Each Way.
The 8 year old Destroyer is a winner of 4 races over 7F (1 win) and 1 mile (3 wins) off marks of 59, 77,78 & 79.
He absolutely needs fast ground and a galloping track, so it’s great news he gets his ideal conditions with good/firm ground, the galloping Pontefract track, where he has won before, and his most prolific 1 mile trip.
Destroyer turns up here after running down the field on his seasonal pipe-opener at Newmarket, but he always needs his first run of the season.
Last year he came on so well for his first run that he won his second start off a mark of 59 and that was when Paddy Mathers came in for the run. Well today let’s hope for déjà vu as Paddy again has been jocked up and Destroyer runs off just 58.
It all looks good for a solid run. He will be contesting the lead with Sand Chorus, but Destroyer doesn’t have to lead, so I’m hoping Paddy can judge the fractions well and take up the running when Sands Chorus burns herself out and Destroyer goes on to finish strongly.
Destroyer looks great value at 12/1 in this 9 runner field and I recommend 1 point each way with Skybet.
He still looks value at 8/1.
Dark Phoenix – 5.25 Kempton – 1 Mile Handicap – 33/1 Boyles – 4 places – BOG – 1 Point Each Way.
The 4 year old Dark Phoenix picked up three wins last season, including over today’s course and distance. His wins were off marks of 58. 62 & 66 and found himself running off a peak of 75.
Dark Phoenix was quite a keen buzzy horse and connections decided to geld him after he ran some disappointing races later on last year.
He ran an Ok comeback in February this year, but then finished last in May. It looks like his breathing was causing him problems, so he was given a wind operation. This may partly explain his rather in and out performances, where he either won/placed or bombed out in last.
Dark Phoenix returned for his latest start in a claimer, where on the face of it he ran poorly, finishing last of 6, but he was completely wrong at the weights (carried top weight against higher rated rivals) and did well under the circumstances postmarking 66.
Today he returns to a handicap off a mark of 63 and gets the assistance of 7lb claimer M Tabti. If Dark Phoenix just runs to the postmark of 66, he achieved last time, then he should get a place. But I feel there will be more to come now that the horse has stripped fitter and knows he can breathe properly.
He will enjoy the track and because he likes to go forward stall 9 of 13 shouldn’t be too much of an inconvenience.
Dark Phoenix may bomb out, but it’s more probable that he will run his race under ideal conditions and off a good mark, especially now Paul Cole’s horses are all running well of late.
At 33/1 with Boylesports, who offer 4 places and BOG we are getting the right value and I recommend 1 point each way.
He still looks value at 16/1.
Sioux Grit – 1.45 Sligo – 1m 2F Handicap – 40/1 Boyles – 4 Places – BOG – 1 Point Each Way.
Gavin Cromwell is one of Ireland’s top trainers and does really well to improve moderate horses.
It looks like his Sioux Grit has been a really backward sort. She ran in three maidens as a 2 year old and trailed in rear each time, only postmarking a high of 29.
This year she has run a further 3 time in maidens, and again she has been slowly away and stayed in rear postmarking a high of just 49.
She made her handicap debut last time out and under the stables newest apprentice was again slowly away off a slow pace and only made minor headway to finish 9th of 14 postmarking 30.
You are probably thinking that this horse is just rubbish and cant be backed, but here are the positives!!
I have watched all her races and she was slowly away because the jockey didn’t make any attempt to get her away quickly. All these races were run slowly, and she was held up in last. She could easily have made up ground in the first half of the race, but the jockey was happy to sit last and make no positive attempts to push her forward until it was far too late.
These were all just educational rides for a horse that was weak and just needed experience and connections were happy to get a low handicap mark!
The horse has only run on soft/heavy going on turf and looking at her breeding she needs better ground (on both sides of the pedigree). Today she gets good ground, and this will certainly help improve her performance.
Gary Carroll is back in the plate, and he has a good strike rate for Gavin Cromwell (in handicaps), including a Royal Ascot winner this year. He rode her in the maidens, so knows the horse well. This will be the first time he will be on her in a handicap, and that is significant.
Sioux Grit runs off just 45 today and has already postmarked 49 so looks nicely handicapped, especially when you consider the horse hasn’t even been ridden positively or aggressively to hit that 49 postmark.
I feel she is a gamble waiting to happen as she is definitely going to postmark 60+ when she is ridden away from the stalls to gain a prominent position.
She has been in my tracker for a while now and I just hope today is the day connections eventually go for it!
At 40/1 she is a juicy price, but she could easily drift out to a massive price. Conversely, she could be smashed into a single figures!
I recommend we definitely back with a best odds guaranteed bookmaker as her tissue price was forecast at 100/1, unfortunately she was never chalked up at that price and the 66/1 with Bet365 was taken early.
I’m recommending 1 point each way at 40/1 with Boylesports who offer 4 places and best odds guaranteed.
She is still value at 16/1.
