Hi Please see my 4 picks for Sunday:
Alterno – 2.40 Downpatrick – 2m 3F Handicap Hurdle – 25/1 Boyles 4 places – 1.5 points each way.
The ground is currently yielding at Downpatrick, but there is significant rainfall due which will change the going to soft, even heavy. The current market leaders don’t want slow ground so I’m expecting an outsider to come in here, or significant market adjustments.
Downpatrick is a sharp undulating track which doesn’t suit every horse and is really a specialist track. The only course winner is Alterno who has won twice here, both over today’s trip, including on soft ground. They were off marks of 102 & 95 and today he gets in here off just 80.
Alterno is in form as he finished a close 4th last time out, losing by 9 lengths, but he made a bad mistake at the last and would have finished a lot closer.
Simon Torrens take the ride, and he is just about the best 3lb claimer around, so Alterno gets in here off a net 77.
He has so much going for him that I’m amazed he sits in the market at 25/1 with Boyles, who offer 4 places and I’m therefore recommending a raised stakes bet at 1.5 points each way.
He is still value at 12/1.
As The Crow Flies – 4.20 Downpatrick 2m 6F Handicap Hurdle – 33/1 Boyles 4 places – 1 Point Each Way.
The 10 year old As The Crow Flies looked to have a big career in front of him as he won 5 Point to Points from just 7 starts beating some decent rivals who have gone onto to rate 120+ under rules.
Unfortunately he is fragile and has had multiple big absences to overcome.
After his 5 wins Point to Point wins, he was the off for 629 days before making his debut under rule. On his hurdling debut he still managed to postmark 88 over a whole inadequate 2m novice hurdle, but then missed more time to complete his 3 mandatory novice hurdle runs.
He was then off for another year and a half, then made his maiden novice chase and managed to postmark a good 100 but was again off for another 300 days.
He made his handicap hurdle debut over 2 miles where he ran well for a long way before blowing up a tailing off.
That was his last run and today he steps up to a much more suitable 2m 6F and connections have added a tongue tie, so his breathing may also have been an issue as well as race fitness.
He runs off a handicap hurdle mark of 86 which looks a good mark considering he has already postmarked 88 over 2 miles hurdles, 100 over chases over 2m 3F and 106 over 3 miles in Point 2 Points.
He sits at 33/1 in the market and that looks generous to me as he is bound to come on for that first run back.
I therefore recommend 1 point each way with Boylesports who offer 4 places.
He still look value at 16/1.
True Mason – 4.25 Haydock – 6F Handicap – 14/1 bet365 – 1 Point Each Way.
This is your usual competitive 6F sprint and the big factor today will be the heavy ground which most of these will not cope with.
This won’t be a problem for True Mason who is by Mayson and his progeny generally relish deep ground. He managed to finish second in a Group 2 on soft ground and postmark 106, so the fact he runs here off just 75 gives him every chance.
Clearly, he has regressed since those heady 2 year old days, but he is only 5 so still has most of his career in front of him.
He has been running well this year placing in big fields on much faster ground and was unlucky last time where he was stuck in behind horses with no run (losing all chance) and still stayed on for 7th of 19 only being beaten by 3 lengths.
He acts at Haydock, finishing 4th of 16 this year over 6F, that form has been franked numerous times and he runs off a 2lb lower mark.
His draw in 9 should hopefully give him space to race and he has an excellent chance with the ground very much in his favour.
At 14/1 with Bet365, who offer 4 places, he is a good each way play.
He still looks value at 10/1.
Just Hiss – 6.15 Haydock – 1m 2F Handicap – 28/1 Betfred – 1 Point Each way.
Another handicap at Haydock and coping with the heavy ground again will be critical.
Just Hiss is trained by the quality trainer Tim Easterby and has his number 1 jockey David Allan on board who has won on Just Hiss and invariably gets a good run out of the horse.
He has run well at Haydock on heavy ground in the past finishing 3rd off a mark of 89 postmarking 97 and a further second on soft ground where he postmarked 82.
He runs here off 77 which gives him every chance to be involved at the finish.
His recent form is solid, where he has been running on over 1m, so the step up in trip will suit. He finished 5th of 19 three runs ago with David Allan on board off a mark of 80, so he has every chance here off a mark of 77 on ground that he will cope with where many will falter.
His draw in stall 17 is a worry, but there are 3 furlongs before the bend and with Just Hiss liking to race prominently, I’m hoping David Allan can get him up there and tuck in 2 wide tracking the leaders.
At 28/1 with Betfred, who offer 4 places, we are getting good value considering most wont handle conditions and I’m recommending 1 point each way.
He still looks value at 16/1.
