Secret Potion – 3.15 Newton Abbot – 2m 1F Handicap Hurdle – 12/1 888 – 1 point each way – Best Odds Guaranteed.
Secret Potion was a decent flat horse in his native Germany where he competed at Listed level and postmarked a high of 95 over middle distances.
He moved to Paul Nicholls’ yard and embarked on a hurdling career, but these were rather low key efforts as he was reported to have a breathing problem in two of his three hurdles.
The breathing operation was only undertaken after he had run poorly in his novice hurdles, so the handicapper had no choice but to give him a low mark of just 92.
Secret Potion did win on his handicap debut but was weak in the market drifting from 2/1 to 7/1 and has then disappointed on his next two runs.
Secret Potion has not been straight forward and cheekpieces and blinkers have been adopted alongside the necessary tongue tie. Today the cheekpieces go back on which he wore when winning.
I feel the main issue causing poor form has been the ground as Secret Potion is by Dabirsim and he was extremely ground dependent, needing fast top of the ground going. All of Secret Potions recent runs have had soft in the description and he just doesn’t cope with it.
On Sunday he will get genuine good/fast going for the first time in a handicap and this could well make the difference and allow his undoubted flat class to shine through. Currently he is rated 95 over hurdles and he is also 95 on the flat. Normally the jumps rating is between 20 to 45 points higher (depending on how fluent a jumper they are).
He is either going to win or bomb out again, so I’m recommending a 1 point each way with 888 at 12/1 – 4 places.
He is still value at 8/1.
Babytaggle – 4.15 Stratford – 2m 3.5F Handicap Hurdle – 12/1 Bet365 – 1 point each way.
I put up Baby taggle last time and he finished second at rewarding odds of 25/1. That day he came up against a highly progressive chaser who was way ahead of his mark. He faces nothing as progressive today.
Babytaggle has dropped 1lb from his last run and comes back 2 furlongs which may well improve his performance, it certainly isn’t a negative.
He enjoyed Stratford last time, jumping and travelling well, so I’m hopeful of a very big run.
I’m surprised he is as big as 12/1 as he beat the rest of the field fair and square last time and from a lower mark, I expected him to be around 6/1 in this field.
I therefore recommend 1 point each way with Bet365.
He is still value at 8/1.
Please see my previous write up for reference.
Babytaggle – 3.38 Stratford – 2m 6F Handicap Chase -22/1 Bet365 – 1 Point Each Way.
The 10 year old Babytaggle is certainly no world beater but did postmark 120 over Ireland as a young horse and whilst trained by Dai Walters achieved a level of consistency running well off marks in the 90s.
He had 400 days off with injury and came back in 2020 point to pointing and then ran in hunter chases. None of these runs were handicaps and he has been running against better horses without any chance of winning at the weights.
He changed stable before his last run and I was expecting them to run in a handicap, but this time they ran in a novice chase, again against better grade horses where he had no chance. This last run showed distinct promise and he went in my tracker to back him when in a handicap.
Well today is the day. He runs off 79 with Shane Quinlan on board who takes a handy 5lb off, netting his mark down to 74. I’m really pleased that Shane rides as he has ridden Babytaggle back in his younger days and was the jockey that helped produce his best displays.
Babytaggle is going to be competitive for the first time in a couple of years and if Shane can get him into a good jumping rhythm, we could see some fine big leaps as he is a good brave jumper.
He is a nice price at 22/1 with Bet365 and I’m recommending 1 point each way.
He is still value at 16/1,
Point of Woods – 3.25 Redcar – 5F Handicap – 66/1 Bet365 – 4 places – 1 point each way.
The 8 year old Point of Woods is a winner of 5 races over 5F & 6F off marks ranging from 56 to 86.
He has been dropping down the weight for a couple of years now and is now off a basement mark of 40, which means he has to run from out of the handicap here by 5lbs. Bearing in mind his past victories off much higher marks this isn’t a problem , it’s more a case of getting his fitness, wellbeing and mind on the job.
Connections have tried mixing up his headgear to try and get a positive response which has generally had a positive effect on this first run then the effect has worn off, which is very usual with most horses.
Last year his best run came over 6F when the visor was applied for the very first time and he hit the front 2 out only to be picked up by one horse close home. The visor didn’t work the next run and hasn’t been worn since.
I like Point of Woods today as he has had a couple of runs to get fit (without any headgear) and now connection reapply the visor. This coincides with the horse being drawn low in stall which represents a good draw in this big field.
They have, Phil Dennis, a pro-jockey booked and are running over 5F which should be ideal considering he was lit up by the visor first time and led the field 2 out and well into the final furlong. So he should be well suited by the shorter trip.
Point of Woods has run well before at Redcar and on fast ground, so the fact we can back him at 66/1 with Bet365 – 4 places and best odds guaranteed makes him a worthwhile each way play.
He is still value at 33/1.
Khan – 2.30 Stratford – 3m 2F Handicap Hurdle – 8/1 888sport – 2 point win.
I put up Khan yesterday, but he was a non-runner. Connections either thought the ground was too quick over the 2m 7F trip and he would be outpaced, or they were just caring for the horse as he has a high knee action and wants just nice ground.
There is no doubt the 3m 2F trip at Stratford is more suitable for Khan. He is a proper stayer and proven over the extreme trip.
It’s just a shame as he is only 8/1 for this and we had 20/1 on Saturday and Harry Skelton!
Harry Reed takes the ride and I’m not really complaining as he is 2 wins from 2 runs on Khan!
The price is really borderline for an each way play and I have decided to advise a straight win at 8/1 with 888.
He is still value at 6/1.
See yesterday’s write up for more information.
Khan – 3.15 Market Rasen – 2m 7F Handicap Hurdle – 20/1 Bet365 – 1 Point Each Way.
Khan has won for us twice before, the latest at 20/1 when stepping up to 3 miles where he committed a long way from home and out staying his rivals off a mark of 100.
On his latest start he came back to 2m 6F and wasn’t ridden prominently or aggressively enough and went down by only 2 lengths.
Today he steps up to 2m 7F runs and gets the benefit of Champion jockey Harry Skelton strong handling.
Khan runs off 106 and I think he has plenty of scope for improvement as he gets more jumping experience. He was quite late to the jumping scene but we know he has an engine as he won a Group 1 race on the flat and stayed 2m 4F in that sphere.
I can’t believe he has been chalked up as the 20/1 outsider with Bet365 and we need to grab that price early!
I think he is still value at 10/1.
